Making sense of mobile...

I am currently fascinated by the overwhelming hype surrounding mobile.  What's makes it most fascinating is that the more experts that tout where we are going to be in the next 3 years with mobile capabilities the more I begin to doubt them.  And, that doubt is in two forms.

First, I doubt that the impact the experts are saying mobile will replace other technology used by consumers for the things they are doing today.  I think the real shift will be in that consumers will be doing things they never did before with any technology.  For example, it is kind of hard to whip out the laptop and do comparison shopping on shampoos when you are Target.  With smart phones, this has all become so much easier that I see my wife looking up all kinds of things on the spot before making a choice.  Forget about capturing people with shelf space or with what's on your website, you better have a great mobile experience or you will lose.

The second doubt that I have is that experts are even close to predicting the impact mobile will have on the generation following Gen Y.  I happen to have one of those and two very young Gen Yers.  There is a complete difference in how the youngest does everything compared to the older two and it is because of his exposure to such a radically different type of technology.  He looks for an app for almost everything he does and he doesn't even have a smart phone of his own, he has to borrow from his siblings to do what he wants to do.  He gets books on his Kindle, his football plays were sent to his Kindle...and even he prefers interactive learning tools, even more than just video.  I know some of that has to do with his learning style but still, is expectation is to have that interaction with everything and if it doesn't, he moves on to the company that offers it.  Thinking about capturing his business is really scary for a financial institution.  He isn't going to want the static plug and jug mortgage calculators we offer today.

I don't think the experts have even scratched the surface of where mobile will be in the next 3, 5 or 7 years because I don't think they can imagine what the next generation expects from mobile.